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Technical Trading Overview for Caribou Coffee Company (CBOU)

Caribou Coffee Company (NASDAQ: CBOU)

Caribou Coffee Company Inc. (CBOU) operates the second-largest company-owned gourmet coffeehouse chain in the United States. As of the close of the second quarter of 2009, the Company operated 522 coffeehouses. It offers retail and bulk customers gourmet coffee, espresso, specialty teas, baked goods, and whole bean coffee to club stores, grocers, mass merchandisers, office coffee providers, airlines, hotels, sports and entertainment venues, college campuses and online customers.

Founded in 1992, the Company is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

Share Statistics (4-Nov-09)

FY

2007

FY

2008

%

Chg

Q2 2008

Q2 2009

%

Chg

Symbol

CBOU

Revenue, $Mn

240.3

229.1

-4.7%

57.3

55.3

-3.49%

Current price

$8.78

Gross marg.

54.9%

52.2%

-9.4%

52.9%

50.6%

-7.59%

52wk Range:

$1.10-9.38

Oper. margin

-12.7%

-6.8%

-49.0%

-4.0%

2.5%

-161%

Avg Vol (3m):

133,797

Net margin

-12.8%

-7.1%

-46.9%

-4.2%

2.2%

-150%

Market Cap.

173.56M

Dil. Shares Outst.

20.12M

EPS, $

-1.356

-0.672

-50.4%

-0.081

0.058

-171%

Source: Reuters.com, SEC Filings.

Financial Summary

Financial Strength (4-Nov-2009) Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Quick Ratio (MRQ) 0.82 1.03 0.34 0.69
Current Ratio (MRQ) 1.19 1.15 0.43 0.81
Long-Term Debt to Equity(MRQ) 0.00 58.51 16.97 76.30
Total Debt to Equity (MRQ) 0.00 94.43 28.99 119.06

Source: Reuters.com, SEC Filings.

Analyst Consensus

The mean of 21 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters rate shares of CBOU a “Hold.”

Analyst Recommendations and Revisions

1-5 Linear Scale Current

1 Month Ago

2 Month Ago

3 Month Ago

(1) BUY 0 0 0 0
(2) OUTPERFORM 0 0 0 0
(3) HOLD 2 2 2 2
(4) UNDERPERFORM 0 0 0 0
(5) SELL 0 0 0 0
No Opinion 0 0 0 0
Mean Rating 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00

Source: Reuters.com, SEC Filings.

Historical Surprises

Estimates vs Actual

Estimates

Actual

Difference

Surprise %

SALES (in millions)
Quarter Ending Jun-09

63.20

62.95

0.25

0.39

Quarter Ending Mar-09

59.20

60.38

1.18

1.99

Quarter Ending Dec-08

67.80

68.05

0.25

0.36

Quarter Ending Sept-08

60.89

60.91

0.02

0.03

Quarter Ending Jun-08

60.73

63.18

2.45

4.04

Earnings (per share)
Quarter Ending Jun-09

0.00

0.06

0.06

0.00

Quarter Ending Mar-09

-0.03

0.02

0.05

-166.67

Quarter Ending Dec-08

-0.04

0.07

0.11

-300.00

Quarter Ending Sept-08

-0.21

-0.42

0.21

-96.91

Quarter Ending Jun-08

-0.25

-0.13

0.12

-48.00

Source: Reuters.com, SEC Filings.

Investment Highlights

The Company operates the second-largest company-owned gourmet coffeehouse chain in the United States. As of the close of the second quarter of 2009, the Company operated 522 coffeehouses. It offers retail and bulk customers gourmet coffee, espresso, specialty teas, baked goods, and whole bean coffee to club stores, grocers, mass merchandisers, office coffee providers, airlines, hotels, sports and entertainment venues, college campuses and online customers.

The Company operates in an economic environment of declining consumer discretionary spending, especially gourmet items which was once a popular trend during an extended period of easy money policies of the banking sector. Credit conditions have since reversed markedly, squeezing consumers through high unemployment rates, lower home values and depleted retirement accounts.

As the economy contracted, the Company responded by closing retail outlets and staff, which according to its latest 10-Q for the period ended June 28, included 62 fewer operating coffeehouse weeks, or a decrease of 3.3% of revenue on a same-store basis. The Company said, however, that it intends to expand in existing markets. For the first six months of calendar year 2009 the Company opened 14 new coffeehouses and added distribution points for its whole bean and ground coffee.

Management is aggressively increasing brand awareness and launching promotions to increase same-store revenue during the remainder of the year, thereby affecting increased operating margins to pre-2009 levels of nearly 53% from 50.6% reported for the second quarter of 2008.

The Company’s commercial revenue stream is growing strongly, registering rates of 28% and 42% for the first quarter and first six months of 2009, respectively. By focusing its efforts on sectors experiencing rapid growth, management believes it can mitigate struggling revenue growth and operating margins from the retail outlet segment.

In the Company’s latest 10-Q, net sales declined 0.4%, or $0.2 million, to $63.0 million for the second quarter of 2009. Revenue decline from its retail outlets was offset by its commercial and franchise segments. Revenue derived through the Company’s retail outlets dropped $2.0 million, or 3.4%, to $55.3 million for the second quarter of 2009. Commercial and franchise sales rose $1.7 million, or 29.5%, to $7.7 million for the second quarter of 2009 due to increased sales from existing customers and new customers.

Technical Analysis

Source: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=cbou

CBOU trades above its 13-day moving average. This bullish sign is significant because the moving average are also positively trending as well.

The MACD for CBOU currently indicates a bearish signal, but appears to soon turn bullish The MACD is below the signal line, a 9-day moving average of the MACD. The MACD is, however, above the critical level of 0, which implies the past price action had been positive. Overall, the chart is bullish.

Comparative Analysis

Company Name

Ticker

Price per

Mrkt. Cap.

P/E

P/S

Nov-4-2009

symbol

Share, $

$ Mn

2009

2010

2009

2010

Starbucks Corp.

SBUX

19.37

14,310

58.49

21.11

1.45

n/a

Green Mountain Coffee Inc.

GMCR

67.38

2,590

55.13

38.84

3.62

n/a

Diedrich Coffee Inc.

DDRX

26.00

147.90

n/a

n/a

2.37

n/a

Specialty Eateries Median

22.68

n/a

1.45

n/a

Caribou Coffee Company

CBOU

8.78

173.56

n/a

22.97

0.69

n/a

Source: Thomson Financial

Insider Trading Activity

NET SHARES PURCHSE ACTIVITY

Inside Purchases – Last 6 Months

Shares

Transaction

Purchases

2,000

1

Sales

66,666

5

Net Shares Purchased (Sold)

(64,666)

6

Total Insider Shares Held

12.49M

n/a

% Net Shares Purchased (Sold)

(0.5%)

n/a

Net Institutional Purchases – Prior Qtr to Latest Qtr

Shares

Net Shares Purchased (Sold)

1,402,290

% Change in Institutional Shares Held

34.4%

Source: Yahoo Finance

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