Market Alert for Echelon Corp. (ELON)

Echelon Corp. (NASDAQ: ELON)

Echelon Corp. (ELON) engages in the manufacturing of products used in the “smart grid.” The Company’s NES System is the backbone of the smart grid, and is used by utilities to effectively monitor and manage the grid. The Company’s LonWorks Infrastructure products connect devices to each other on the grid and through the Internet. LonWorks is designed to lower energy costs, improve productivity and enhance services to power company end-users. Founded in 1988, the Company is headquartered in San Jose, California.

Share Statistics (4-Dec-09)

FY

2007

FY

2008

%

Chg

Q3 2008

Q3 2009

%

Chg

Symbol

ELON

Revenue, $Mn

137.6

134.0

-2.6%

29.5

23.7

-19.7%

Current price

$11.00

Gross marg.

36.5%

38.4%

2.6%

45.1%

43.5%

-22.6%

52wk Range:

$5.13-15.38

Oper. margin

-14%

-20.2%

37.6%

-20%

-32.1%

28.8%

Avg Vol (3m):

353,156

Net margin

-11.4%

-19.3%

64.4%

-18.3%

-34.6%

51.9%

Market Cap.

450.83M

Dil. Shares Outst.

40.99M

EPS, $

-0.36

-0.640

77.8%

-0.130

-0.200

53.9%

Source: Reuters.com, SEC Filings.

Financial Summary

Financial Strength (4-Dec-2009) Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Quick Ratio (MRQ) 4.46 1.94 1.74 0.85
Current Ratio (MRQ) 5.73 2.07 2.05 1.00
Long-Term Debt to Equity (MRQ) 20.76 34.29 18.45 130.17
Total Debt to Equity (MRQ) 22.09 54.46 29.49 200.35

Source: Reuters.com, SEC Filings.

Analyst Consensus

The mean of six analysts polled by Thomson Reuters rate shares of ELON an “Outperform.”

Analyst Recommendations and Revisions

1-5 Linear Scale Current

1 Month Ago

2 Month Ago

3 Month Ago

(1) BUY 2 3 3 1
(2) OUTPERFORM 1 1 1 1
(3) HOLD 6 4 4 4
(4) UNDERPERFORM 0 0 0 0
(5) SELL 0 0 0 0
No Opinion 0 0 0 0
Mean Rating 2.44 2.12 2.12 2.50

Source: Reuters.com, SEC Filings.

Investment Highlights

The inevitable passage of some form of “Cap and Trade” legislation will provide investors with another government-mandated growth industry to invest risk capital. Public and private money will flow into the new “Smart Grid” in ways similar to the rush into Internet companies of the 1990s, but won’t be nearly as well-followed, particularly interesting, or empowering to the public. Smart Grid companies will provide tremendous revenue for the commercial participants, both large and small.

Until nuclear power and “alternative” energy sources come on-line, efficient use of the energy available through the Grid is the most likely target of public and private funds. Nuclear power, wind farms, widespread PV panels and other sources of energy take many years to implement, leaving most of the present growth in these technologies within the government, utilities and a handful of commercial sectors.

The Smart Grid is a system that adapts the present electrical infrastructure to achieve better efficiency, adaptability and multi-source usability. Through the next two decades, utilities will invest hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure Smart Grid upgrades, including computers, sensors and networking systems and devices.

The major providers to the Smart Grid will most likely come from General Electric, Siemens, Cisco Systems, Oracle, among other large-capitalized enterprises. Moreover, smaller companies providing leading-edge technologies also will most likely attract significant investor funds looking for “pure” plays.

According to research firm, GlobalData, the smart meter revenue growth rate is expected to reach 24% in 2009 from 2008. Installations of smart meters are anticipated to increase well into double-digit annual rates during the next decade. Inherent technical barriers have discouraged the assimilation of new energy sources into the grid. However, smart grid technologies will lower these barriers and enable the introduction of new energy sources onto the Grid.

The Company specializes in making meters and develops technologies for the “Smart meter,” which will be installed in the home, keeping track of the watts used from the Grid.

The Company has invested heavily in research and development of hardware and software products of the advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) market. The utilities industry uses the Company’s products in its distribution to customers of the power companies as part of the “smart grid.” Company revenue of approximately $166.7 million have been generated from this market, with a substantial level of revenue derived from Enel Contatore Electtronico’s electricity meter management project in Italy.

Analysts believe the Company will be a major competitor in the Smart meter space, with the chance of being bought by General Electric or other bigger competitor.

Technical Analysis

Source: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ELON

ELON trades below its 13-day moving average. This bearish sign is significant because the 13-day moving average is downwardly sloped.

The MACD for ELON currently indicates a bearish signal. The MACD is below the signal line, a 9-day moving average of the MACD. The MACD is below the critical level of 0, which implies the past price action had been negative. Overall, the chart is bearish.

Comparative Analysis

Company Name

Ticker

Price/

Mrkt. Cap.

P/E

P/S

Dec-7-2009

symbol

Share, $

$ Mn

2009

2010

2009

2010

Rockwell Automation Inc.

ROK

45.66

6,500

29.48

19.27

1.44

n/a

Itron Inc.

ITRI

62.17

2,490

767.53

20.86

1.51

n/a

ESCO Technologies Inc.

ESE

35.29

933.14

18.97

18.57

1.48

n/a

Network & Comm. Median

44.30

n/a

1.38

n/a

Echelon Corp.

ELON

11.00

450.83

n/a

n/a

4.36

n/a

Source: Thomson Financial

Insider Trading Activity

NET SHARES PURCHASE ACTIVITY

Inside Purchases – Last 6 Months

Shares

Transaction

Purchases

n/a

0

Sales

91,506

6

Net Shares Purchased (Sold)

(91,506)

6

Total Insider Shares Held

11.19M

n/a

% Net Shares Purchased (Sold)

(0.8%)

n/a

Net Institutional Purchases – Prior Qtr to Latest Qtr

Shares

Net Shares Purchased (Sold)

(724,087)

% Change in Institutional Shares Held

(5.0%)

Source: Yahoo Finance

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